Chris Trucksess Y2K index

The Chris Trucksess Y2K index describes how the public could respond to the Y2K bug starting with the first day of 1999 up until New Year’s Day 2000. The index data points form an exponential curve starting at a minimal public reaction of 1.00 for 1999-01-01 and ending at the highest public activity of 100.00 on 2000-01-01.

This measure depends on the premise that public response to the Y2K bug, namely a panic, will not develop until the final days of 1999. The index exceeds the 50.00 midpoint on 1999-11-08, Mon instead of sometime in the middle of the year, which would be the case in a linear situation. It may be more convenient to think of the number each day as a cumulative percentage of the public that took action due to Y2K.

This function defines the Y2K index value for each day:

index(day of 1999) = 1.012696834 ^{^ [(day of 1999) - 1]}

The value 1.012696834 was arrived at with the assistance of a TI-82 calculator. For 2000-01-01 the day of 1999 is 366.

This graph estimates the exponential curve of the Y2K index.

Bold lines in the data table below highlight milestones in the index value.